A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
